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Statistical rules of thumb Gerald van Belle
Publisher: Wiley

The problem with rules of thumb is. And on a less flippant note, I came across this essay by Norvig” yesterday, taking Chomsky to task on his rubbishing of statistical approaches to understanding languages compared to rule-based approaches. Haldane cites work on decision-making by the psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer. Here are four rules of thumb for converting English words in to Spanish. The Fed believes that demographic changes have lowered the amount of job creation needed to keep the A rule of thumb on Wall Street is that it takes about 150,000 jobs a month to keep up with the growth in the labor force and thereby keep the unemployment rate steady. Greg Ip at the Wall Street Journal on the interpretation of employment statistics. As I perused Statistical Rules of Thumb again, as I do from time to time, I came across this gem. As someone who uses statistical models to do the kind of forecasting he seems to be proposing, I couldn't help but wonder: Why stop halfway? The marketer does a statistical test of significance and gets a p-value of 0.04 (remember your business stats class here…). None of the three seem to follow the rule with any sort of consistency but they are all in the ballpark of the rule, but not by much. The numbers will follow but here are some takeaways (I didn't do any statistical analysis, this is just me eyeballing numbers and drawing conclusions that are probably not statistically significant): The rule of thumb is certainly good in terms of rules of thumb, I wouldn't follow it to the ends o f the Earth but it's definitely better than nothing. (note: I live in CA, so get no money from these Amazon links). Careful application of the Income Approach explicitly relates the rule of thumb metric to equity cash flow and accounts for company-specific risks in the discount or capitalization rate. Version B Source: Statistical Rules of Thumb by Gerald van Belle; http://vanbelle.org/. This may lead to a That is true, provided we have a sample size sufficient for statistical confidence and that there has been no material change in the industry that invalidates historical price / sales multiples. Words ending in For example, two exceptions to the third rule are that the Spanish word for translation is traducción and the word for explanation is explicación. This is simple and is based on underlying statistical calculations (averaged across different scenarios to allow for a simple rule of thumb) that incorporates information about the reliability of the difference score. Praise for the First Edition: "For a beginner [this book] is a treasure trove; for an experienced person it can provide new ideas on how better to pursue the subject of applied statistics." —Journal of Quality Technology. Rules of thumb can be very helpful, but they are often pretty coarse. The main argument of the author is that the evolutionary process has led humans to develop “rules of thumb” or “heuristics” that tend to lead to efficient decision making processes. But the Fed's view is that “equilibrium” job growth is only 110,000 per month.